Rodgers and Deebo? Don't Hold Your Breath on Those "Free Agents"
Let's get real for a second. The NFL's "free agency" machine is a beast, but sometimes the biggest names floated around aren't actually hitting the open market. Aaron Rodgers isn't a free agent. Deebo Samuel isn't a free agent. Both are under contract for 2026. Rodgers, for example, signed a three-year, $150.8 million deal with the Jets in 2023, and Samuel inked a three-year, $73.5 million extension with the 49ers in 2022. They'd be trade pieces, not free agents. We're talking about players whose contracts genuinely expire after the 2025 season. So, let's look at the *actual* big fish who could be looking for new homes come March 2026.
The Quarterback Question Mark
Patrick Mahomes isn't going anywhere. Neither is Joe Burrow. But the next tier? That's where it gets interesting. Tua Tagovailoa, for instance, is currently playing on his fifth-year option, set to earn $23.17 million in 2024. If the Dolphins don't extend him long-term by then, he's staring down unrestricted free agency in 2026. His 2023 season saw him throw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns, but also six fumbles and 14 interceptions. That kind of up-and-down production makes a monster extension tricky. I'd argue he's the most intriguing potential QB on the market, simply because of his age and the flashes of brilliance he's shown.
Then there's Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are always in a dance with Prescott's contract. He's got a void year in 2025 that pushes his cap hit to an astronomical $55.45 million. Dallas will almost certainly restructure or extend him before he ever sees the open market. But if, by some wild chance, they don't, Prescott, who led the league with 36 touchdowns in 2023, instantly becomes the biggest name available. That's a long shot, though. The smart money is on him staying put.
Skill Position Stars and Defensive Anchors
Look, the running back market is brutal, and it's hard to imagine a back commanding top dollar in 2026. But a few wide receivers could be due. CeeDee Lamb, for example, is another Cowboy facing a contract year, playing on his fifth-year option in 2024 for $17.99 million. He hauled in 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023. If Dallas can't lock him up, he's an immediate WR1 for any team. Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions is another one. He signed a four-year, $120 million extension in April 2024, but that deal runs through 2028. He's off this list.
On defense, keep an eye on guys like Micah Parsons. He's under contract through 2025 on his rookie deal, with a fifth-year option for 2026 if the Cowboys exercise it. That means he's not a true free agent until 2027. We're talking about players whose deals *actually* expire. One name that could emerge is Roquan Smith. The Ravens linebacker signed a five-year, $100 million deal in January 2023, so he's locked up until 2027.
Thing is, the true elite talents almost never hit the market. Teams extend them early. The real gems are often those second-tier guys who have breakout years or veterans who still have gas in the tank.
The Unsung Heroes Who Might Actually Move
Here's the thing: the actual "best" free agents in 2026 won't be the guys you're reading about on clickbait lists right now. It'll be the reliable offensive linemen, the solid slot corners, or the pass rushers who consistently get six to eight sacks a year. Think about a guy like Grady Jarrett, who signed a three-year, $51 million extension with the Falcons in 2022. That deal expires after 2025. He'll be 32 then, but still a disruptive force inside. Or maybe a solid tackle like Lane Johnson, who's currently signed with the Eagles through 2026, but will be 36. His contract could be restructured, or he could be released.
The real value in free agency often comes from players who are slightly under the radar. The ones who aren't making headlines but are foundational pieces. I predict that the biggest impact free agent signing in 2026 will be an offensive guard who quietly signs a five-year, $80 million deal and anchors a playoff team for years.