Salah's Second Chance: How Analytics Overruled Klopp's Gut on a £34m Steal
It’s an old story in football, isn’t it? The manager wants his guy, the scouts have their data, and somewhere in the middle, a club makes a decision that either looks genius or utterly foolish a few years down the line. For Liverpool, the summer of 2017 brought one of those moments, a fork in the road that, thanks to some persistent data analysts, led them to Mohamed Salah instead of Julian Brandt.
Gab Marcotti recently pulled back the curtain on this, explaining how Jürgen Klopp, fresh off a fourth-place finish in the 2016-17 Premier League, had his sights set on Brandt, then a promising winger at Bayer Leverkusen. Brandt was good, no doubt. He’d bagged 3 goals and 11 assists across all competitions that season, a decent return for a 21-year-old. Klopp saw the raw talent, the German connection, probably envisioned him slotting into that fluid attacking system. But Liverpool’s analytics department, led by Michael Edwards, had other ideas. They kept pushing Salah.
The Numbers Don't Lie (Usually)
Salah, at 25, was coming off a sensational year for Roma, where he’d exploded for 19 goals and 15 assists in 41 appearances across Serie A and the Europa League. Think about that production. He was involved in 34 goals. Brandt, meanwhile, was involved in 14. The numbers for Salah were simply on another level, especially considering his previous, less-than-stellar stint at Chelsea from 2014-2016 where he only managed two league goals. Liverpool’s data guys saw a player who had matured, who was consistently producing at a high level in a top European league. They saw a player who, despite the Premier League blip, had the underlying metrics screaming "elite."
Klopp, to his credit, listened. He looked past the Chelsea baggage, past his initial preference, and agreed to the £34 million deal for Salah. It was a lot of money then, but it looks like pocket change now. That’s the beauty of good scouting and even better data analysis — it can override instinct and prevent a massive "what if." Imagine if Liverpool had gone with Brandt. He’s had a fine career, sure, now at Borussia Dortmund, but he’s never hit Salah’s stratospheric heights. Salah’s debut season at Anfield saw him break the Premier League record for most goals in a 38-game season with 32, a mark that still stands. He added 10 more in the Champions League that year as Liverpool reached the final.
A Lesson in Trusting the Process
This whole episode is a masterclass in organizational alignment. Klopp is a strong personality, a manager who trusts his gut. But he also trusts his team. He understood that the club’s analytical infrastructure was there for a reason, to provide insights beyond what the eye test alone might capture. It wasn’t about proving him wrong; it was about finding the *best* player for Liverpool. And they did. Since joining, Salah has scored 155 Premier League goals in 254 appearances, winning three Golden Boots. He's been the cornerstone of a team that won the Champions League in 2019 and the Premier League in 2020.
Here’s my hot take: this willingness to let data challenge even the manager’s top targets is precisely why Liverpool had such a sustained period of success. It wasn't just Klopp's charisma; it was the smart, sometimes unpopular, decisions made behind the scenes. Without that analytical push, Liverpool might have just been a very good team instead of a truly legendary one for a few seasons.
The Unseen Architect
Thing is, these stories rarely get told in real-time. We only hear about them years later, when the outcome is clear. Michael Edwards, who left Liverpool in 2022, deserves immense credit for building that robust scouting and analytics framework. He created a system that could identify value and, crucially, advocate for it, even when it went against the manager's initial preference. That kind of internal challenge, when handled professionally, is what separates good clubs from great ones.
And it’s a process that continues to pay dividends. Just look at the recent signing of Dominik Szoboszlai last summer for £60 million. Another player with strong underlying numbers, who has already contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 23 league appearances in his debut season. It’s a testament to the enduring culture of data-driven recruitment at Anfield. My bold prediction? Liverpool will secure another top-four finish this season, largely thanks to the continued excellence of Salah, a player almost never signed.