The Fantasy Football Guru's Crystal Ball: What 2026 Projections Are REALLY Telling Us
Forget the "trust the process" bumper stickers. We're talking Mike Clay's process, and that's a different beast entirely. He just dropped his 2026 fantasy football projections, and if you're not paying attention, you're drafting blind. I’ve been sifting through his notes, the ones that build the foundation for those numbers, and there are some trends you simply can't ignore before your draft.
The QB Conundrum and Receiver Reload
The days of needing a top-five fantasy quarterback to win your league? They're fading, fast. Last season, Patrick Mahomes finished as QB6 but still put up a monster 4,720 yards and 38 touchdowns. The gap between the elite and the next tier is shrinking. Clay's data suggests a lot of QBs will hover in that 20-25 fantasy points per game range. Josh Allen might still be king, but the value pick at QB7 or QB8 could be the smarter play. Think about someone like Anthony Richardson, who, in his limited rookie snaps, showed the rushing upside to challenge the top guys. If he stays healthy in 2025, his 2026 projection could be a massive steal.
And speaking of value, the receiver landscape is absolutely loaded. Clay's notes highlight a significant uptick in target shares for secondary options on many teams. We saw it last year with Nico Collins in Houston, who out-targeted Tank Dell in four games they both played, finishing with over 1,200 receiving yards. This isn't just about the alphas anymore. Look for teams with strong passing volumes but a clear WR1 and a reliable WR2. The Denver Broncos, for example, even with a murky QB situation, have Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. both projected for solid target numbers. Mims, in particular, could be a dark horse after only seeing 22 targets in 2024.
Running Backs: Volume Over Everything Else
Running back feels like the wildest position year after year, but Clay's projections reinforce one undeniable truth: volume is king. You don't need elite efficiency if you're getting 20 touches a game. Take Rhamondre Stevenson. He only averaged 4.0 yards per carry last season, but his 246 carries and 51 targets kept him firmly in the RB2 conversation. Clay's data for 2026 suggests a few backs are set to inherit massive workloads. Dameon Pierce in Houston, despite a disappointing 2024, is still projected for significant touches if Devin Singletary isn't re-signed. Look for those situations where a back is the clear lead, even if the offense isn't high-flying.
Here's my hot take: Drafting a top-tier running back in the first round is a trap in 2026. The injury risk is too high, and the depth at receiver and the emergence of lower-tier QBs means you can build a more resilient team. Instead, target two high-volume RB2s in the middle rounds. Think about a guy like Zamir White, who, after Josh Jacobs left, saw 20+ carries in three of the last four games of 2024. If he’s the guy for the Raiders, his 2026 volume will be gold.
Tight Ends: Chasing the Unicorns
Tight end is still a wasteland outside the top few guys. Travis Kelce remains the gold standard, even at 36 years old, with over 90 receptions in 2024. But after him, it's a prayer. Clay's projections don't offer much solace. The gap between TE3 and TE12 is often negligible. My advice? Either pony up for Kelce or Sam LaPorta, who had 86 catches and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, or punt the position entirely.
Don't waste a mid-round pick on a tight end hoping for a breakout. Grab another receiver or a high-upside backup running back instead. Look for the absolute cheapest option with a pulse and a chance at a touchdown. Could be a veteran like Dalton Schultz, who consistently gets 50-60 targets, or a rookie with incredible athleticism. But don't expect a revelation.
My bold prediction for 2026: The top fantasy scorer will be a wide receiver for the first time in five years, likely Justin Jefferson, who finished with 1,770 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2024.