Tua Tagovailoa landed in Atlanta with the kind of fanfare usually reserved for a returning hero, not a quarterback looking for a second chance. The former Miami Dolphin, inked to a one-year, $10 million deal, knows the score. On Tuesday, he flatly stated, "I've got to play better football" if he wants to unseat Kirk Cousins for the Falcons' QB1 spot. He's not wrong.
Here's the thing: "better" for Tua means a significant leap from his 2023 performance. He led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards last season, a career-high. That's a shiny number, but it masks some ugly truths. His 29 touchdowns were good, but his 14 interceptions tied for third-most in the league, a stark contrast to his 25 TDs and 8 INTs in 2022. The Dolphins, despite his yardage, finished 11th in offensive DVOA. They folded against good teams, going 1-5 against playoff contenders down the stretch, including a Week 18 loss to Buffalo that cost them the AFC East.
The Falcons didn't sign Tagovailoa to challenge Cousins right away. They handed Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. That kind of money buys you the starting job, at least initially. Cousins, coming off a torn Achilles in 2023, still managed 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns in just eight games for the Minnesota Vikings. His 103.8 passer rating was elite, and he completed 69.5% of his passes. He's a proven commodity when healthy.
So, where does Tua fit? He’s the insurance policy, the high-upside backup. But let's be real, he's also the pressure cooker. Cousins hasn't played a full season since 2022. If he struggles or, God forbid, gets hurt again, the keys will go to Tagovailoa. That’s when the "play better" mandate kicks in. Tua’s career completion percentage sits at 66.9%, and his 89 career touchdowns against 37 interceptions are respectable, but not game-changing for a top-tier starter. He needs to show he can elevate an offense, not just manage it.
Atlanta's offense is loaded. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts – that's a trio of young talent any quarterback would covet. The offensive line, anchored by Chris Lindstrom and Jake Matthews, is solid. The stage is set for a quarterback to thrive. Tua, with his quick release and accuracy on short to intermediate throws, could theoretically light up the stat sheet. However, his deep ball has always been a question mark. In 2023, his average depth of target was 7.4 yards, 29th in the NFL. That’s fine for a dink-and-dunk system, but the Falcons need more explosiveness.
Here's my hot take: Tua's biggest hurdle isn't Cousins’ contract; it's his own perceived fragility. He's missed 17 games over the past four seasons due to various injuries, including multiple concussions. Until he proves he can stay on the field for 17 games, his "upside" will always be accompanied by a giant asterisk. He needs to show durability more than anything else.
Bold prediction: Tua Tagovailoa starts at least four games for the Atlanta Falcons in 2024, and he'll look significantly more comfortable in Zac Robinson's offense than he ever did in Miami.