Tyne-Wear Derby: Why Newcastle Should Fear This Cup Clash

It’s been eight long years since Newcastle and Sunderland last faced each other. Eight years. For anyone who grew up with this derby, that feels like an eternity. Now, the FA Cup’s third round has thrown up the fixture everyone in the North East craves, even if some of us pretend we don’t. Saturday, January 6th, 2024, 12:45 PM GMT at the Stadium of Light. You can catch it on ITV1 and ITVX.

Look, Newcastle are the Premier League team. They've spent a mountain of money. They’re supposed to win this walking away, right? Not so fast. The Magpies arrive after a brutal December that saw them drop from fourth to ninth in the league, losing six of their last seven games in all competitions, including a 3-0 Boxing Day thumping at home by Nottingham Forest. Eddie Howe’s squad is absolutely ravaged by injuries. Nick Pope, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Javi Manquillo, Matt Targett, Joe Willock – all out. Sandro Tonali is still serving his ban. Callum Wilson and Joelinton are only just back, and Sven Botman is still finding his rhythm after his own injury layoff. They’re running on fumes and a prayer.

Sunderland, meanwhile, sits sixth in the Championship. They’re not exactly tearing up trees, but they’re not in a relegation scrap either. They just beat Preston North End 2-0 on New Year's Day. Key players like Jack Clarke, who has 12 goals this season, and Jobe Bellingham are looking sharp. Tony Mowbray got sacked, and Michael Beale is still finding his feet, but a derby win could galvanize their season. Remember the 2013-14 season? Sunderland was battling relegation, Newcastle was mid-table, and the Black Cats still won 3-0 at St. James' Park. Anything can happen in this game.

Here's the thing: form goes out the window in a derby. Especially this derby. The atmosphere at the Stadium of Light will be absolutely electric, hostile even. The Sunderland faithful haven’t seen their rivals in nearly a decade, and they’ll be foaming at the mouth. Referee Stuart Attwell will have his hands full, that’s for sure. He’s dished out 45 yellow cards and two reds in 12 Premier League games this season. There will be tackles, there will be drama.

Newcastle's recent struggles away from home are also concerning. They've lost their last five away matches across all competitions, conceding 13 goals in the process. Their last clean sheet on the road was way back in September, a 0-0 draw at AC Milan in the Champions League. That’s not exactly the kind of record you want heading into a cauldron like the Stadium of Light.

My hot take? This is an absolute banana skin for Newcastle. They’re exhausted, injury-hit, and emotionally drained from their Champions League exit. Sunderland, despite their lower league status, has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. They'll play with a fire and intensity Newcastle simply won't be able to match, not with their current squad depth. I reckon Sunderland pulls off the upset.

Bold prediction: Sunderland will win 2-1, sending the home crowd into raptures and piling even more pressure on Eddie Howe.